The 2024 edition of our security risk map is online!

The year 2023 was characterised by a global deterioration of the security environment, which is likely to continue in 2024, with possible adjustments in the balance of power and a re-evaluation of national priorities in the light of emerging challenges. Against a backdrop of resurgent historical tensions at both community and inter-state levels, 2023 confirms the restructuring of traditional alliances and the reconfiguration of strategic rivalries for influence, driven by a relatively significant change in regional dynamics. In addition, the absence or failure of enhanced multilateral cooperation initiatives to tackle global challenges such as climate change and health crises suggests that security and humanitarian situations on a global scale will become increasingly complex and bogged down.

The year was marked by the outbreak of a new conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas last October. The object of political recuperation by various players in the region and a historical fault line between states and within societies in the Arab world, it rekindled tensions and led to an increase in violence in several theatres - particularly in Lebanon, Iraq - and fuelling a real risk of regional destabilisation in 2024. Already perceptible in North Africa through large-scale demonstrations in support of the Palestinian cause, the repercussions of this conflagration will have an impact on the 2024 electoral processes in Algeria and Tunisia.

The African subcontinent is facing a dual dynamic, a trend that will be confirmed and continued in 2023: on the one hand, increasing political violence and a decline in democracy (particularly in West and Central Africa), and on the other, geopolitical isolation and a redefinition of cooperation policies (for the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States in particular). The general deterioration in the security situation (DRC, Sudan, Sahel, Ethiopia), which continues to reinforce Russia's role as a new military partner, will be accentuated in the run-up to the 2024 elections, giving rise to fears of a marked deterioration in the humanitarian situation on the continent.

In Asia, security threats, whose causes are mainly local, have regional consequences. The risks of terrorism and insurrection, as well as inter-ethnic violence, are concentrated in areas bordering Afghanistan (with repercussions for Central Asia, Iran and Pakistan) and Myanmar (with collateral effects on China, India and Bangladesh). In addition, independence movements, sometimes with Islamist overtones, are active in the Philippines (Mindanao Islamists) and Indonesia (West Papua guerrillas).

Latin America remains exposed to a high criminal risk associated with organised crime, which is likely to increase given the continuing fragmentation of criminal organisations into ultra-violent factions and their transnational nature. The year 2023 also confirmed the unpredictability of elections, the results of which (such as the election of Javier Milei in Argentina) reflect strong aspirations for political change in the region. These are mainly the result of the crystallisation of societies around issues linked to the growing levels of social inequality and organised crime, which are conducive to the outbreak of social unrest.

Finally, a number of security threats also need to be monitored in Europe. The terrorist threat has been revised upwards since 07 October 2023 and the importing of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to Europe, reflected in the multiplication of demonstrations with a high risk of getting out of hand, as well as the spectacular rise in anti-Semitic acts. At the same time, the risks of political violence linked to extremist movements on the left and right are high, as are the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict in terms of Russian cyber and information attacks.

Click here to download the 2024 edition of our security risk map in pdf format.