Performed by our teams of analysts, this map provides an overview of security risk areas worldwide in 2022.
Several multifaceted crises have marked the past year, announced as early as 2020 by various weak signals (Ethiopia, Afghanistan, etc.) and coupled in 2022 with security risks for foreign nationals present on the ground. Despite the persistence of inter-state conflicts (Nagorno-Karabakh in particular), asymmetric conflicts, primarily concentrated on the African continent, remain prevalent.
Africa faces the gradual descent of the jihadist threat toward the Gulf of Guinea in the context of the transformation of the French military operation Barkhane. The geopolitical and security environment of the continent is also profoundly affected by the resumption of the ethnic-political conflict in Tigray, in Ethiopia, since last November.
In Northern Africa, Morocco and Algeria broke off their diplomatic relationship on 24 August, raising concerns over an escalation of tensions. In the Middle East, the Fatah Alliance, associated with pro-Iran Shia militias, was defeated during the Iraqi legislative elections (10 October), catalysing protest movements supported by pro-Teheran factions.
Furthermore, the politico-security situation has become particularly tense in Afghanistan since the withdrawal of American troops (announced in May 2021) and the capture of Kabul by the Taliban on 15 August, exacerbating the terrorist threat in South Asia (India and Pakistan). Mention should also be made of the persistence of an anti-French feeling in Pakistan, coming from a rigorist section of the population. Finally, since last November, the resumption of demonstrations of a socio-political nature has occurred in Bangkok, Thailand.
Europe remains exposed to a latent risk of jihadist attacks and the rising threat of extremist movements (from the right and left). Simultaneously, the current tensions at the Poland-Belarus border highlight the fragility of the geopolitical context of Eastern Europe.
Finally, Latin America faces continuous and deep social contest movements, mainly in Colombia and Chile, and criminal organisations' violent activities. In this context — and despite the signature of the peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016 — a resurgence of violence has been observed in Colombia, mainly in the country's border regions. For its part, Haiti is plagued by the activity of armed gangs taking advantage of the chronic socio-political instability exacerbated by the murder of President J. Moïse (7 July).
The year 2022 will be marked by several forthcoming elections (especially in the United States, Brazil, Colombia, France, Lebanon, Philippines and India) that will potentially catalyse social movements in urban centres of numerous countries. Particular attention must be paid to the Gulf of Guinea, Libya, Morocco/Algeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Venezuela and Colombia, considering the weak signals identified and their destabilising potential at both national and regional levels.
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